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J. Mon. Ec. 2025, 20(1): 39-67 |
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Ghamari H, Tehranchian A M, Jafari Samimi A, Roudari S. Transmission Channels of Monetary Policy Effects on Household Consumption in Iran: A TSVAR Approach.. J. Mon. Ec. 2025; 20 (1) :39-67
URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-702-en.html
URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-702-en.html
Transmission Channels of Monetary Policy Effects on Household Consumption in Iran: A TSVAR Approach.
1- PhD Candidate, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2- Professor, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
3- PhD, Department of Economics, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
2- Professor, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
3- PhD, Department of Economics, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
Abstract: (315 Views)
This study investigates the transmission channels of monetary policy effects on household consumption in Iran using a Threshold Structural Vector Autoregression (TSVAR) model and monthly data from 2006 to 2023. Empirical results demonstrate that the impact and symmetry of monetary policy on household spending are highly regime-dependent. In low-inflation periods, monetary easing mainly increases consumption through enhanced bank credit and exchange rate stability, resulting in significant and persistent effects. In contrast, under high inflation, these effects weaken, become short-lived or unstable, and the role of the stock market channel becomes more volatile and limited. Impulse response analysis also confirms asymmetric and heterogeneous channel behavior in response to monetary shocks. Overall, the findings underscore the need for regime-specific and channel-oriented monetary policy to support household welfare and macroeconomic stability in Iran.
Type of Study: Original Research - Case Study |
Subject:
Monetary Economics
Received: 6 Jun 2025 | Accepted: 16 Sep 2025 | Published: 5 Oct 2025
Received: 6 Jun 2025 | Accepted: 16 Sep 2025 | Published: 5 Oct 2025
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