en NAFTA to USMCA free trade agreements: A comparative study about trade deficit & net trade of HS6 digit commodities in the agricultural section اقتصاد توسعه Development Economics پژوهشی اصیل - كاربردی Original Research - Empirical <p style="text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:black">This paper analysis the trade deficit and net agricultural trade effect of the NAFTA vs. USMCA free trade agreements among the USA-Canada-Mexico. Selected models are based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and the gravity model for agriculture selected section with the affecting economic index for the period of forcing both trade agreements. Analysis shows a significant relationship between the trade deficit and net agricultural trade with selected macroeconomic factors. These results suggest that after putting in force NAFTA & USMCA free trade agreements, the trade deficit as a whole and the agriculture section case changed during 1994-2020.</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span new="" roman="" times="">This study examines the impact of NAFTA and USMCA free trade agreements on trade deficits and net agricultural trade between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, focusing on HS6-digit level agricultural commodities from 1994 to 2020. Using ARDL and gravity models, the results show that NAFTA led to increased trade volumes and improved net trade positions&mdash;particularly for Mexico, whose net agricultural trade surplus with the U.S. grew by approximately 24%. In contrast, the United States experienced a 15% increase in its agricultural trade deficit under USMCA, while Canada&rsquo;s balance remained relatively stable, with fluctuations within a &plusmn;5% range. The ARDL model indicates that GDP (&beta; = 0.47, p < 0.01), exchange rate (&beta; = 0.82, p < 0.05), and government spending (&beta; = &ndash;0.39, p < 0.1) significantly influenced bilateral trade deficits. In the gravity model, GDP per capita had the strongest positive effect on net agricultural trade (&beta; = 1.75, p < 0.01), while agricultural value-added had a negative impact (&beta; = &ndash;0.61, p < 0.05). These findings suggest that structural changes in trade agreements, combined with macroeconomic conditions, have measurable effects on national trade balances. For countries like Iran, the study highlights the importance of designing bilateral trade frameworks that promote agricultural competitiveness, maintain exchange rate stability, and protect vulnerable producers. Evidence-based trade policy can help Iran achieve greater trade resilience and improve its position in regional agricultural markets.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></p> Trade deficit, net agricultural trade, free trade agreements, ARDL approach, GLS method NAFTA to USMCA free trade agreements: A comparative study about trade deficit &,,, net trade of HS6 digit commodities in the agricultural section 497 537 http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-526-2&slc_lang=en&sid=1 Reza Mohseni رضا محسنی re_mohseni@sbu.ac.ir 10031947532846007003 10031947532846007003 Yes Assistant Professor, Member of Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science استادیار عضو هیات علمی دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی Mehdi Ghasemi Meymandi مهدی قاسمی میمندی mehdi.ghasemi.meymandi@gmail.com 10031947532846007004 10031947532846007004 No MA فوق لیسانس