Volume 19, Issue 1 (3-2024)                   J. Mon. Ec. 2024, 19(1): 25-41 | Back to browse issues page


XML Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

rahmani T, varahrami V. Analyzing the asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on energy-intensive industries in Emerging and Developed Economics. J. Mon. Ec. 2024; 19 (1) : 2
URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-692-en.html
1- shahid beheshti university
Abstract:   (764 Views)
The rapid growth of Emerging Economics in previous decades have made them an important player in the international arena, along with Developed Economics, which have a significant impact on international economic transactions. This study investigate the way oil price fluctuations affect energy-intensive sectors in Emerging and Developed Economics using quarterly data from 2005 Q1 to 2024 Q2. Particularly, in this study NARDL framework is employed to examine the asymmetric impact of changes in oil prices by decomposing oil price shocks into positive and negative partial sums. The results show significant and asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on energy-intensive industrial sectors. The results show that the effect of negative changes in oil prices on both economics is similar, while Developed Economics react differently to positive changes in oil prices compared to Emerging Economics. overall, energy-intensive industries in Developed Economics show better management and are less vulnerable to oil price fluctuations in comparison with Emerging Economics.
 
Article number: 2
Full-Text [PDF 844 kb]   (518 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Original Research - Empirical | Subject: Economics
Received: 29 Apr 2025 | Accepted: 1 Jun 2025 | Published: 1 Jul 2025

References
1. Aastveit, Kunt Are and Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud (2014), "What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies", Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 30, Issues 7, pp. 1013-1028. [DOI:10.1002/jae.2406]
2. Akinsola, M.O. and Odhiambo, N.M. (2020), "Asymmetric effect of oil price on economic growth: panel analysis of low-income oil-importing countries", Energy Reports, Vol. 6, pp. 1057-1066. [DOI:10.1016/j.egyr.2020.04.023]
3. Bachmeier, Lance,. Keen, Benjamin,. (2023). "Modeling the Asymmetric Effects of an Oil Price Shock", International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 19, pp. 1-47.
4. Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. and Mestre, R. (1998), "Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework", Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 19, pp. 267-283. [DOI:10.1111/1467-9892.00091]
5. Breitung, J. (2001), "The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. In: Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels", Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 161-167. [DOI:10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15006-6]
6. Darby, Michael R. (1982), "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession.", American Economic Review, Vol. 72, No. 4, pp. 738-751.
7. Driesprong, G., Jacobsen, B. and Maat, B. (2008), "Striking oil: another puzzle?", Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 89, No. 2, pp. 307-327. [DOI:10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.07.008]
8. Ferderer, J.P. (1996), "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy", Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1, pp. 1-26. [DOI:10.1016/S0164-0704(96)80001-2]
9. Finn, M.G. (1995), "Variance properties of Solow's productivity residual and their cyclical implications.", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol 19, pp. 1249-1281. [DOI:10.1016/0165-1889(94)00826-4]
10. Hadri, K. (2000), "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data", The Econometrics Journal, Vol.3, No.2, pp. 148-161. [DOI:10.1111/1368-423X.00043]
11. Hamilton, J.D. (2013), "Historical oil shocks", Routledge Handbook of Major Events in Economic History(Book).
12. Hamilton, J.D. and Herrera, A.M. (2001), "Oil shocks and aggregate macroeconomic behavior: the role of monetary policy", Discussion Paper 2001-10, University of California, San Diego.
13. Hamilton, James D. (1983) "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II", Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 2, pp.228-248. [DOI:10.1086/261140]
14. Hamilton, James D. (1983), "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II", Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 2, pp. 228-248. [DOI:10.1086/261140]
15. Herrera, A. M., L. Lagalo, and T. Wada (2011), "Oil Price Shocks and Industrial Production: Is the Relationship Linear?", Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 15, No.3, pp. 472-597. [DOI:10.1017/S1365100511000290]
16. Hooker, M.A., 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime". Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 540-561. [DOI:10.1353/mcb.2002.0041]
17. Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (2003), "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels", Journal Econometrics, Vol. 115, No. 1, pp. 53-74. [DOI:10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7]
18. Jiranyakul, Komain,. (2025), "Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth and Inflation in Asia: What do We Learn from Empirical Studies?" MPRA, No. 123664, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5138911 [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.5138911]
19. Jo, S., Karnizova, L. and Reza, A. (2018), "Industry effects of oil price shocks: a re-examination", Energy Economics, Vol. 82, pp. 179-190. [DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.12.010]
20. Jo, S., Karnizova, L. and Reza, A. (2018), "Industry effects of oil price shocks: a re-examination", Energy Economics, Vol. 82, pp. 179-190. [DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.12.010]
21. Jones, C. M., & Kaul G., (1996), "Oil and the stock markets", Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, pp. 463-491. [DOI:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb02691.x]
22. Kilian, L., and Park C., (2009), "The impact of oil price shocks on the US stock market", International Economic Review, Vol. 50, pp. 1267-1287. [DOI:10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00568.x]
23. Kilian, L., (2009), "Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market", American Economic Review, Vol. 99, pp. 1053-69. [DOI:10.1257/aer.99.3.1053]
24. Kim, I.M. and Loungani, P. (1992), "The role of energy in real business cycle models", Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 29, pp. 173-189. [DOI:10.1016/0304-3932(92)90011-P]
25. Lee, K. and Ni, S. (2002), "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data", Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 49 No. 4, pp. 823-852. [DOI:10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00114-9]
26. Levin, A., Lin, C.F. and Chu, C.S. (2002), "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties", Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 108, No. 1, pp. 1-24. [DOI:10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7]
27. Long, S., and Liang, J. (2018), "Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of global crude oil price to China's PPI and CPI inflation", Economic Research-Ekonomska istraživanja, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 240-251. [DOI:10.1080/1331677X.2018.1429292]
28. Maddala, G.S. and Wu, S. (1999), "A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 61, No. 1, pp. 631-652. [DOI:10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631]
29. Nusair, S.A. (2016), "The J-curve phenomenon in European transition economies: a nonlinear ARDL approach", International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 31, pp. 1-27. [DOI:10.1080/02692171.2016.1214109]
30. Pedroni, P. (1999), "Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 61, No. 1, pp. 653-670. [DOI:10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.14]
31. Pedroni, P. (2004), "Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis", Econometric Theory, Vol. 20, No. 3, pp. 597-625. [DOI:10.1017/S0266466604203073]
32. Peltzman, Sam (2000), "Prices Rise Faster than They Fall", Journal of political Economy, vol. 108, No.3, pp. 466-502. [DOI:10.1086/262126]
33. Pesaran, M. H. (2007), "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence", Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 265-312. [DOI:10.1002/jae.951]
34. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001), "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships", Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, pp. 289-326. [DOI:10.1002/jae.616]
35. Ratti, R.A. and Vespignani, J.L. (2015), "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy", Energy Economics, Vol. 50, pp. 364-378. [DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.12.001]
36. Ritz, Robert A. (2015), "The Simple Economics of Asymmetric Cost Pass-Through", Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1515, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
37. Rodríguez, Rebeca Jiménez and Sánchez, Marcelo, (2004), "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries", Working Paper Series 362, European Central Bank.
38. Rotemberg, J.J. and Woodford, M. (1996), "Imperfect competition and the effects of energy price increases on economic activity", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 28, pp. 550-577. [DOI:10.3386/w5634]
39. Shin, Y., Yu, B. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014), "Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework", in Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, pp. 281-314. [DOI:10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9]
40. Shin, Yongcheol and Byungchul Yu, and Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo (2014), "Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework", Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt. Springer, pp 281-314 [DOI:10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9]
41. Yang, Lu and Xiao Jing Cai and Shingeyuki Hamori, (2017), "Does the crude oil price influence the exchange rates of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries differently? A wavelet coherence analysis", International Review of Economics & Finance, Vol. 49, pp. 536-547. [DOI:10.1016/j.iref.2017.03.015]
42. Zhu, X., Liao, J. and Chen, Y. (2021), "Time-varying effects of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty on the non-ferrous metals industry: from the perspective of industrial security", Energy Economics, Vol. 97, pp. 105-192. [DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105192]

Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:
CAPTCHA

Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2026 All Rights Reserved | Journal of Money And Economy

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb