Volume 19, Issue 2 (6-2024)                   J. Mon. Ec. 2024, 19(2): 211-227 | Back to browse issues page

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behzadi soufiani M, shahbazi M. The Impact of Exchange Rate on Stock Price in Iran: A Quantile Regression Approach. J. Mon. Ec. 2024; 19 (2) : 4
URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-682-en.html
1- university of Tehran
Abstract:   (74 Views)

Iranian stock market, as a reflection of the real sector of the country's economy, has experienced many uncertainties and challenges in recent years. One of the macroeconomic factors that vaguely affects stock market is exchange rate, which has a significant volatile pattern with several overshoots during recent years. As a result, analyzing the impact of the exchange rate on stock price has become important as always. Bearing the restrictions on Iran’s trade and spectacular role of exchange rate in Iranian economy along with monetary expansion and fiscal dominance in mind, stock market reacts to exchange rate fluctuations in an asymmetric way. In order to prevent the impact of outliers and parametrical failures, this study seeks to examine the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock price using quantile regression. Based on daily data between 2020/10/12 till 2024/12/20 and using first difference of both stock price logarithm and exchange rate logarithm, it became vivid that the impact of the exchange rate on the stock price is different in estimated quantiles and it is U shaped. Meaning when Stock market is stable and there are no absolute pattern of growth or crash around the median, exchange rate could not explain the stock price significantly. However, if the stock market goes bearish or bullish, quantiles where market is on its lowest or in top two quantiles, exchange rate has a crucial positive impact on the market which complies with evidence in the sample period.

Article number: 4
     
Type of Study: Original Research - Empirical | Subject: Economics
Received: 7 Mar 2025 | Accepted: 25 May 2025 | Published: 29 Jun 2025

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