Volume 21, Issue 1 (3-2026)
J. Mon. Ec. 2026, 21(1): 21-35 |
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Darvishi R, Dizaji M, Ketabforoush Badri A, Hajipour A. The Influence of Oil Revenue and Exchange Rate on Stock Market Investment in Iran. J. Mon. Ec. 2026; 21 (1) :21-35
URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-739-en.html
URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-739-en.html
1- PhD student in Economics, Nejmeddin Erbakan University, Konya, Turkey
2- Associate professor, Department of Economics, Ta.C., Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
3- Department of Economics, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran
4- Scholar of economic sciences, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad university, Tabriz, Iran
2- Associate professor, Department of Economics, Ta.C., Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
3- Department of Economics, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran
4- Scholar of economic sciences, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad university, Tabriz, Iran
Abstract: (57 Views)
This study investigates how oil revenues and the exchange rate influence investment in Iran’s stock market, drawing on seasonal data for the period 2000–2024. To capture these dynamics, the analysis applies a Markov-switching model that incorporates oil revenues, exchange rate, and inflation as explanatory variables. The results highlight that the impact of these factors varies across regimes, reflecting different market conditions. The first regime, associated with high variance and a strong average level (boom), shows that oil revenues and the exchange rate contribute positively to stock market investment, while inflation exerts a negative effect. In contrast, the second regime, characterized by high variance and a weak average level (recession), reveals a continued positive role for oil revenues, but negative influences from both the exchange rate and inflation.
Type of Study: Original Research - Empirical |
Subject:
Monetary Economics
Received: 28 Sep 2025 | Accepted: 18 Nov 2025 | Published: 29 Mar 2026
Received: 28 Sep 2025 | Accepted: 18 Nov 2025 | Published: 29 Mar 2026
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